Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks on Thursday, January 7 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 87% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 87%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, Atlanta Hawks 119. The rating gap is 227 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Hawks are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: T.J. McConnell (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 4-2, with the Hawks outscoring the Pacers by an average of 5.7 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 124, IND 129.