Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday, January 6 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 91% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 91%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 106, San Antonio Spurs 120. The rating gap is 309 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Spurs are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: T.J. McConnell (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 3-1, with the Spurs outscoring the Pacers by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was IND 119, SAS 134.