Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat on Tuesday, January 5 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Heat about a 79% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Heat 79%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 109, Miami Heat 117. The rating gap is 131 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.2. The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cedric Coward (MEM), expected back Oct 25, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Heat outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 120, MIA 136.