The Win Meter favors the Pelicans at home against the Mavericks on Monday, January 4, at about 65%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Pelicans 65%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 111, New Orleans Pelicans 115. The rating gap is 7 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pelicans on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Pelicans are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Pelicans' best recent win was 156-137 at home against UTA.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Santi Aldama (DAL), Tarik Biberovic (DAL), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Jett Howard (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 111, NOP 129.