Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, January 3 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 93% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 93%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 105, Oklahoma City Thunder 121. The rating gap is 355 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 6-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Kings by an average of 20.3 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 99, OKC 113.