Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets on Sunday, January 3 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Nuggets at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 57%, with a projected score of Detroit Pistons 112, Denver Nuggets 114. The rating gap is 48 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Pistons would win.
Recent form
The Pistons are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Nuggets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 113-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, and Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ausar Thompson (DET), Jalen Duren (DET), and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Nuggets outscoring the Pistons by an average of 5.8 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 121, DET 124.