Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, January 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 94% chance, and the Jazz would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 94%, with a projected score of Utah Jazz 104, Oklahoma City Thunder 122. The rating gap is 385 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 17 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Jazz are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Jazz's best recent win was 147-101 at home against MEM.
The Jazz were beaten 131-107 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTA), expected back Nov 4, 2026, Trey Alexander (UTA), expected back Oct 25, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 8-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Jazz by an average of 24.3 points per game. The last meeting was UTA 111, OKC 146.