Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks on Saturday, January 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 84% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 84%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 108, Atlanta Hawks 118. The rating gap is 189 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Hawks are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Santi Aldama (DAL), Tarik Biberovic (DAL), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Jett Howard (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Hawks outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 135, DAL 120.