Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets on Friday, January 1 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 83% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 83%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 108, Houston Rockets 118. The rating gap is 181 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Rockets are 2-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 115-96 at home against LAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026 and Reed Sheppard (HOU), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Santi Aldama (DAL), Tarik Biberovic (DAL), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Jett Howard (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 6-3, with the Rockets outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 6 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 110, HOU 128.