San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards on Friday, January 1 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 84% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 84%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 118, Washington Wizards 108. The rating gap is 391 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Spurs are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.4. The Wizards are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 24, 2026, Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: AJ Dybantsa (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 4-0, with the Spurs outscoring the Wizards by an average of 13.7 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 124, WAS 113.