Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, December 31 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 87% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 87%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 107, Oklahoma City Thunder 119. The rating gap is 225 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Heat by an average of 7.8 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 120, MIA 122.