Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks on Thursday, December 31 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 87% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 87%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 107, Atlanta Hawks 119. The rating gap is 234 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.6. The Hawks are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 137-111 on the road by DET not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027 and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 5-3, with the Hawks outscoring the Bucks by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 99, ATL 122.