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Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors: preview and Win Meter

Houston Rockets → Golden State Warriors →

Recent form is the story in Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, December 30. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5, while the Warriors have won 1.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Rockets 57%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 114, Golden State Warriors 112. The rating gap is 152 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.

Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.

The recent-form gap

The Rockets are 2-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.4. The Warriors are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.

The Rockets' best recent win was 115-96 at home against LAL.

The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.

The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Reed Sheppard (HOU), expected back Oct 24, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Charles Bassey (GSW), expected back Oct 24, 2026.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 8-7, with the Warriors outscoring the Rockets by an average of 0.3 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 117, GSW 116.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Rockets4-1, +5.4 avg margin
Warriors1-4, -8 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • The Rockets arrive in better form (W-W-L-W-W against L-W-L-L-L).
  • Health: 5 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Warriors.

Recent meetings

  • Apr 5: HOU 117, GSW 116
  • Mar 5: GSW 115, HOU 113
  • Nov 26: HOU 104, GSW 100
  • May 4: GSW 103, HOU 89 (playoffs)
  • May 2: HOU 115, GSW 107 (playoffs)

Injury report

Houston Rockets
  • Reed Sheppard Out · back Oct 24
Golden State Warriors
  • Kristaps Porzingis Out · back Dec 1
  • Jimmy Butler Out · back Jan 2
  • Moses Moody Out · back Dec 1
  • Charles Bassey Out · back Oct 24

Win Meter

57%
43%
RocketsWarriors

Projected score: Rockets 114, Warriors 112

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

57%
43%
RocketsWarriors

Matchup at a glance

HOUGSW
Record2-00-2
Last 5WWLWWLWLLL
Points per game121106.5
Allowed per game110119
Days of rest––
Rating15841432

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