Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, December 29 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 93% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 93%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 105, Oklahoma City Thunder 121. The rating gap is 352 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.6. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 137-111 on the road by DET not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-2, with the Thunder outscoring the Bucks by an average of 6.4 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 110, OKC 93.