Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, December 29 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Mavericks at only 53%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 53%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 113, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 82 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2. The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Santi Aldama (DAL), Tarik Biberovic (DAL), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Jett Howard (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Heat by an average of 1.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 108, DAL 118.