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Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns: preview and Win Meter

Golden State Warriors → Phoenix Suns →

The Win Meter favors the Suns at home against the Warriors on Monday, December 28, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Warriors are far from out of it.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Suns 73%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Phoenix Suns 116. The rating gap is 74 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Suns on top of that.

A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.

Recent form

The Warriors are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8. The Suns are 0-1 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -22.

The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.

The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Charles Bassey (GSW), expected back Oct 24, 2026, and Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027.

Day to day or questionable: Luke Kennard (PHX) and Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 5-4, with the Warriors outscoring the Suns by an average of 1.2 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 96, PHX 111.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Warriors1-4, -8 avg margin
Suns0-5, -22 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • Health: 5 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Suns.

Recent meetings

  • Apr 17: GSW 96, PHX 111
  • Feb 5: GSW 101, PHX 97
  • Dec 20: PHX 116, GSW 119
  • Dec 18: GSW 98, PHX 99
  • Nov 4: PHX 107, GSW 118

Injury report

Golden State Warriors
  • Kristaps Porzingis Out · back Dec 1
  • Jimmy Butler Out · back Jan 2
  • Moses Moody Out · back Dec 1
  • Charles Bassey Out · back Oct 24
Phoenix Suns
  • Mark Williams Out · back Feb 3
  • Luke Kennard Questionable · back Oct 24
  • Oso Ighodaro Doubtful · back Oct 24

Win Meter

27%
73%
WarriorsSuns

Projected score: Warriors 110, Suns 116

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

27%
73%
WarriorsSuns

Matchup at a glance

GSWPHX
Record0-20-1
Last 5LWLLLLLLLL
Points per game106.583
Allowed per game119124
Days of rest––
Rating14321506

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