Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets on Sunday, December 27 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 87% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 87%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 107, Denver Nuggets 119. The rating gap is 223 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4. The Nuggets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 113-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, and Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: T.J. McConnell (IND) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 3-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Pacers by an average of 9 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 135, IND 120.