Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat on Sunday, December 27 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 55%, with a projected score of Charlotte Hornets 113, Miami Heat 114. The rating gap is 68 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the Hornets would win.
Recent form
The Hornets are 1-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.2. The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Coby White (CHA), Kon Knueppel (CHA), and Grant Williams (CHA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 6-3, with the Heat outscoring the Hornets by an average of 5.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 126, CHA 127.