Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks on Saturday, December 26 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Suns at only 50%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Suns 50%, with a projected score of Phoenix Suns 113, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 103 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 50 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Suns are 0-1 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -22. The Mavericks are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027 and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Luke Kennard (PHX), Oso Ighodaro (PHX), Santi Aldama (DAL), and Tarik Biberovic (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Suns lead 6-1, with the Suns outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 5.1 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 107, PHX 112.