Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, December 23 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 76% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 76%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 115, New Orleans Pelicans 108. The rating gap is 296 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pelicans on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4. The Pelicans are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Pelicans' best recent win was 156-137 at home against UTA.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Malik Dia (NOP), and Jaron Pierre Jr. (NOP).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 7-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 19.4 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 95, OKC 104.