The edge goes to the Warriors at home against the Mavericks on Tuesday, December 22, at about 71%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 71%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 111, Golden State Warriors 117. The rating gap is 59 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.8. The Warriors are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026, and Jett Howard (DAL), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Brandin Podziemski (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 4-3, with the Warriors outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 137, DAL 131.