Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers on Monday, December 21 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Lakers about a 84% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 84%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 109, Los Angeles Lakers 119. The rating gap is 189 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Lakers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 1-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.2. The Lakers are 1-0 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 123-94 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 124-104 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 25, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Cameron Carr (LAL), expected back Oct 25, 2026, and Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 25, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Aaron Nesmith (IND), Kobe Brown (IND), and Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 4-0, with the Lakers outscoring the Pacers by an average of 6.5 points per game. The last meeting was LAL 137, IND 130.