Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs on Monday, December 21 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 92% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 92%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 106, San Antonio Spurs 122. The rating gap is 328 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 13 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.6. The Spurs are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 137-111 on the road by DET not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026 and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: De'Aaron Fox (SAS) and Keldon Johnson (SAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 3-1, with the Spurs outscoring the Bucks by an average of 15 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 127, MIL 95.