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Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves: preview and Win Meter

Phoenix Suns → Minnesota Timberwolves →

The Win Meter favors the Timberwolves at home against the Suns on Monday, December 21, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Suns are far from out of it.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 73%, with a projected score of Phoenix Suns 111, Minnesota Timberwolves 117. The rating gap is 73 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.

A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.

Recent form

The Suns are 0-1 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -22. The Timberwolves are 1-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -7.2.

The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.

The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.

The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027, Oso Ighodaro (PHX), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.

Day to day or questionable: Luke Kennard (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 5-2, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Suns by an average of 7.4 points per game. The last meeting was PHX 104, MIN 116.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Suns0-5, -22 avg margin
Timberwolves2-3, -7.2 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • The Timberwolves arrive in better form (L-W-L-L-W against L-L-L-L-L).
  • Health: 3 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Timberwolves.

Recent meetings

  • Mar 17: PHX 104, MIN 116
  • Dec 8: PHX 108, MIN 105
  • Nov 21: MIN 113, PHX 114
  • Mar 28: PHX 109, MIN 124
  • Mar 2: MIN 116, PHX 98

Injury report

Phoenix Suns
  • Mark Williams Out · back Feb 3
  • Luke Kennard Day to day · back Oct 24
  • Oso Ighodaro Out · back Oct 26
Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Donte DiVincenzo Out · back Apr 2

Win Meter

27%
73%
SunsTimberwolves

Projected score: Suns 111, Timberwolves 117

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

27%
73%
SunsTimberwolves

Matchup at a glance

PHXMIN
Record0-11-0
Last 5LLLLLLWLLW
Points per game83131
Allowed per game124106
Days of rest––
Rating15061579

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