Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, December 20 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Bucks at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Bucks 52%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 114, Milwaukee Bucks 114. The rating gap is 84 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Bucks are 0-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9.6.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 137-111 on the road by DET not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Charles Bassey (GSW), expected back Oct 24, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Brandin Podziemski (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 3-1, with the Warriors outscoring the Bucks by an average of 5.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 113, GSW 120.