Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat on Sunday, December 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Heat about a 80% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Heat 80%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 110, Miami Heat 118. The rating gap is 136 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13. The Heat are 0-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8.
The Kings were beaten 138-109 at home by LAC not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Malik Monk (SAC), Vladislav Goldin (MIA), and Dru Smith (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Kings lead 3-1, with the Kings outscoring the Heat by an average of 2.2 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 130, SAC 117.