Game preview · Thu 8:00 PM MT

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors: preview and win probability

Miami Heat visit Golden State Warriors. Heat are 0-1 and have gone L-W-W-L-L in their last 5, while Warriors are 0-1 and have gone L-L-W-L-L in their last 5.

The model leans toward Warriors: about 56% to win, with a projected score of Miami Heat 113, Golden State Warriors 115. That is close to a toss-up. These are model estimates built from past results, not guarantees.

The teams have met 4 times in our recent records. Heat lead 3-1, and the average margin has been 8.2 points in favor of Heat.

On the injury report, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), Jimmy Butler (GSW), and Moses Moody (GSW) are listed as out.

Keys to the game

  • Home court is worth roughly three points in our model, which helps Warriors.
  • Watch the rotation: 3 players are listed as out across the two teams.

Recent meetings

  • Jan 19: MIA 112, GSW 135
  • Nov 19: GSW 96, MIA 110
  • Mar 25: GSW 86, MIA 112
  • Jan 7: MIA 114, GSW 98

Injury report

Miami Heat

No reported injuries.

Golden State Warriors
  • Kristaps Porzingis Out · back Dec 1
  • Jimmy Butler Out · back Jan 2
  • Moses Moody Out · back Dec 1
  • Charles Bassey Day to day · back Oct 23
  • Brandin Podziemski Day to day · back Oct 23

Win probability

44%
56%
HeatWarriors

Projected score: Heat 113, Warriors 115

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Matchup at a glance

MIAGSW
Record0-10-1
Last 5LWWLLLLWLL
Points per game106105
Allowed per game131127
Days of rest1414
Rating14981442

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