Game preview · Wed 7:30 PM MT

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks: preview and win probability

Oklahoma City Thunder visit Dallas Mavericks. Thunder are 1-0 and have gone L-W-L-L-W in their last 5, while Mavericks are 0-1 and have gone L-L-L-W-L in their last 5.

The model leans toward Thunder: about 78% to win, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 118, Dallas Mavericks 110. A win for Mavericks would count as a real upset. These are model estimates built from past results, not guarantees.

The teams have met 7 times in our recent records. Thunder lead 4-3, and the average margin has been 5.6 points in favor of Thunder.

On the injury report, Dereck Lively II (DAL), Thomas Sorber (OKC), Nikola Topic (OKC), and Otega Oweh (OKC) are listed as out.

Keys to the game

  • Home court is worth roughly three points in our model, which helps Mavericks.
  • Watch the rotation: 4 players are listed as out across the two teams.

Recent meetings

  • Mar 1: OKC 100, DAL 87
  • Dec 5: DAL 111, OKC 132
  • Oct 27: OKC 101, DAL 94
  • Jan 23: DAL 121, OKC 115
  • Jan 17: OKC 98, DAL 106

Injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Thomas Sorber Out · back Oct 26
  • Nikola Topic Out · back Oct 26
  • Otega Oweh Out · back Jul 1
Dallas Mavericks
  • Santi Aldama Day to day · back Oct 23
  • Dereck Lively II Out · back Oct 23
  • Tarik Biberovic Day to day · back Oct 23
  • Caleb Martin Day to day · back Oct 23
  • Jett Howard Day to day · back Oct 23

Win probability

78%
22%
ThunderMavericks

Projected score: Thunder 118, Mavericks 110

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Matchup at a glance

OKCDAL
Record1-00-1
Last 5LWLLWLLLWL
Points per game116110
Allowed per game104128
Days of rest76
Rating17051383

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