Game preview · Mon 5:30 PM MT

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat: preview and win probability

Dallas Mavericks visit Miami Heat. Mavericks are 0-1 and have gone L-L-L-W-L in their last 5, while Heat are 0-1 and have gone L-W-W-L-L in their last 5.

Tip Off Live ratings give the edge to Heat: about 77% to win, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 110, Miami Heat 118. A win for Mavericks would count as a real upset. These are model estimates built from past results, not guarantees.

The teams have met 4 times in our recent records. The series is even, and the average margin has been 1.5 points in favor of Mavericks.

On the injury report, Santi Aldama (DAL), Dereck Lively II (DAL), Tarik Biberovic (DAL), and Caleb Martin (DAL) are listed as out.

Keys to the game

  • Home court is worth roughly three points in our model, which helps Heat.
  • Watch the rotation: 5 players are listed as out across the two teams.

Recent meetings

  • Dec 3: MIA 108, DAL 118
  • Nov 24: DAL 102, MIA 106
  • Feb 13: MIA 113, DAL 118
  • Nov 24: DAL 118, MIA 123

Injury report

Dallas Mavericks
  • Santi Aldama Out · back Oct 23
  • Dereck Lively II Out · back Oct 23
  • Tarik Biberovic Out · back Oct 23
  • Caleb Martin Out · back Oct 23
  • Jett Howard Out · back Oct 23
Miami Heat

No reported injuries.

Win probability

23%
77%
MavericksHeat

Projected score: Mavericks 110, Heat 118

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Matchup at a glance

DALMIA
Record0-10-1
Last 5LLLWLLWWLL
Points per game110106
Allowed per game128131
Days of rest44
Rating13831498

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