Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors on Friday, December 25 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Nuggets at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 57%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 113, Golden State Warriors 111. The rating gap is 146 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -9. The Warriors are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6.
The Nuggets were beaten 113-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Alpha Diallo (DEN) and Brandin Podziemski (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 4-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Warriors by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 93, DEN 116.