Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, December 25 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Thunder at only 51%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 51%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 112, Minnesota Timberwolves 112. The rating gap is 110 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 49 times in 100 games like this, the Timberwolves would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4. The Timberwolves are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 8-5, with the Thunder outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 2.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 103, OKC 116.