Miami Heat at Boston Celtics on Friday, December 25 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 78% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 78%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 108, Boston Celtics 116. The rating gap is 124 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.2. The Celtics are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Celtics were beaten 113-97 at home by PHI not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 7-1, with the Celtics outscoring the Heat by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 147, MIA 129.