Miami Heat (38-29) beat Milwaukee Bucks (27-38) 112-105 at home on Thursday, March 12.
The game, quarter by quarter
The Heat had the better start, winning the first 31-21 to lead by 10 after one. The Bucks cut into the deficit with a 30-28 second quarter, though the Heat still led by 8 at halftime.
The teams matched each other with 26 points apiece in the third quarter, so the Heat remained ahead by 8 entering the fourth. The Bucks took the fourth 28-27; the Heat held on for a 112-105 regulation win.
What decided it
The Heat grabbed 31.3% of their own misses, while the Bucks recovered 7.3%. The Heat made 23.9 free throws per 100 field-goal attempts, compared with 16.9 for the Bucks. The second chances kept adding up.
The Bucks did win one battle, shooting: eFG% of 54.8% against 48.9%. The Heat made up for it elsewhere.
At roughly 101 possessions per team, the Heat produced 110.8 points per 100 possessions to 103.8 for the Bucks.
Who made the difference
Pelle Larsson was the game's biggest individual force for MIA: 28 pts, 6 reb, 6 ast on 9-14 shooting. His Game Score of 27.4 led everyone. His team was +13 with him on the floor.
Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 31 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast on 12-24 shooting, good for a 19.2 Game Score.
Ryan Rollins (16 pts, 5 reb, 10 ast) recorded a double-double.
What it means
The result fit the pre-game Win Meter, which gave the Heat about a 85% chance.
Across the last 6 meetings in our records, Milwaukee Bucks lead 5-1.
The Heat are now 38-29, and the Bucks are 27-38. The Heat last five before this game: W-W-W-W-W.
Written automatically by Tip Off Live software from box score data. Ratings and probabilities are our own model estimates.